Smoke-free 2040 goal failing as young adults keep vaping

A recent survey has exposed a worrying trend among Dutch young adults, with nearly four in ten aged 18 to 24 regularly smoking cigarettes or vaping. This figure challenges the Netherlands’ ambitious Smoke-free 2040 target, which aims to drive smoking rates below 5% across the population by the end of the decade.

The research, conducted by a consortium of public health bodies, shows that while traditional cigarette use has edged down slightly among youth, e-cigarette adoption has surged. Nearly one in five respondents reported daily use of vapes, drawn by flavours, sleek designs and perceptions of reduced harm.

Key survey findings

  • Overall uptake: 39% of young adults smoke or vape, compared with 25% a decade ago.
  • Vape popularity: 18% use e-cigarettes daily, a jump from 10% in 2023.
  • Dual use: 11% combine traditional smoking with vaping, heightening nicotine dependence.
  • Awareness gap: Only 30% of users recognise the potential long-term health risks of vaping.

Policy hurdles and industry tactics

Despite plain packaging rules for tobacco and bans on vending machines, the government has yet to impose strict regulations on e-liquids and vape marketing. Manufacturers continue to promote flavoured products—such as fruit, candy and dessert blends—that appeal strongly to younger demographics.

“We’re seeing a loophole in the legislation that’s being exploited,” says Marijke de Jong, a spokesperson for the Longfonds health foundation. “With attractive packaging and social-media campaigns, vape companies are targeting young people almost as aggressively as traditional tobacco firms once did.”

Health experts sound the alarm

Medical professionals warn that nicotine addiction during adolescence can impair brain development, hurt concentration and increase the likelihood of transitioning to combustible cigarettes. Recent studies also raise concerns over respiratory inflammation linked to certain vape ingredients.

Dr. Lars van der Meer, a pulmonologist at Amsterdam’s University Medical Center, cautions: “Vaping is not risk-free. We’re only beginning to understand its long-term effects. If the trend continues, the Smoke-free 2040 goal may slip further out of reach.”

Next steps for a smoke-free future

Policy proposals currently under debate include restricting e-liquid flavours, raising the legal purchase age to 21, and implementing higher taxes on vaping products. Advocates argue that without decisive measures, the dream of a generation free from nicotine addiction will remain unfulfilled.

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